Abstract
Climate change considerably affects vegetation growth and may lead to changes in vegetation distribution. Leopard-skin camphor is an endangered species, and the main raw material for hawk tea, and has various pharmacodynamic functions. Studying the potential distribution of two leopard-skin camphor varieties under climate change should assist in the effective protection of these species. We collected the distribution point data for 130 and 89 Litsea coreana Levl. var. sinensis and L. coreana Levl. var. lanuginosa, respectively, and data for 22 environmental variables. We also predicted the potential distribution of the two varieties in China using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and analyzed the key environmental factors affecting their distribution. Results showed that the two varieties are mainly located in the subtropical area south of the Qinling Mountains–Huai River line in the current and future climate scenarios, and the potentially suitable area for L. coreana Levl. var. lanuginosa is larger than that of L. coreana Levl. var. sinensis. Compared with current climatic conditions, the potentially suitable areas of the two leopard-skin camphor varieties will move to high-latitude and -altitude areas and the total suitable area will increase slightly, while moderately and highly suitable areas will be significantly reduced under future climatic scenarios. For example, under a 2070-RCP8.5 (representative of a high greenhouse gas emission scenario in the 2070s) climatic scenario, the highly suitable areas of L. coreana Levl. var. sinensis and L. coreana Levl. var. lanuginosa are 6900 and 300 km2, and account for only 10.27% and 0.21% of the current area, respectively. Temperature is the key environmental factor affecting the potential distribution of the two varieties, especially the mean daily diurnal range (Bio2) and the min temperature of the coldest month (Bio6). The results can provide a reference for relevant departments in taking protective measures to prevent the decrease or extinction of the species under climate change.
Highlights
Ecologists have focused on the relationship between species distribution and environment for a long time, they have recognized that climatic factors play a key role in species distribution [1]
The potential distributions of L. coreana Levl. var. sinensis, and L. coreana Levl. var. lanuginosa were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the mean area under curve (AUC) values were 0.970 and 0.960, respectively (Figure 2)
Our study showed that the potentially suitable areas of two leopard-skin camphor varieties are mainly located in the subtropical area south of the Qinling Mountains–Huai River line under current and future climatic scenarios
Summary
Ecologists have focused on the relationship between species distribution and environment for a long time, they have recognized that climatic factors play a key role in species distribution [1]. The global temperature increased by 0.85 ◦ C from 1880 to 2012, and it is expected to continue to rise by 0.3 ◦ C–4.8 ◦ C by the end of the 21st century [2]. Assessment Report of China presented that the average temperature of China’s land area increased by 0.9 ◦ C–1.5 ◦ C from 1909 to 2011, and the temperature will rise by 1.3 ◦ C–5.0 ◦ C by the end of the 21st century [3]. Many biological groups migrate to a climatic environment suitable for their growth as a coping mechanism, and this phenomenon may change species distribution [8,9]. Chen et al [10] and
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