Abstract
Simple SummaryThe red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), is an invasive pest, and it has spread rapidly all over the world. In this study, based on the distribution data and environmental factor data of S. invicta, the optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable areas of S. invicta growth in China under current and future climatic conditions. The results show that the potential suitable area of S. invicta growth in the current climate is 81.37 × 104 km2 in size and is mainly located in the south and southeast of China. The total suitable area of S. invicta growth is expected to increase in the future climate change scenario, and the suitable area is likely to spread to higher latitudes.The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), is an invasive pest, and it has spread rapidly all over the world. Predicting the suitable area of S. invicta growth in China will provide a reference that will allow for its invasion to be curbed. In this study, based on the 354 geographical distribution records of S. invicta, combined with 24 environmental factors, the suitable areas of S. invicta growth in China under current (2000s) and future (2030s and 2050s) climate scenarios (SSPs1-2.5s, SSPs2-3.5s and SSPs5-8.5s) were predicted by using the optimized MaxEnt model and geo-detector model. An iterative algorithm and knife-cut test were used to evaluate the important environmental factors that restrict the suitable area under the current climatic conditions. This study also used the response curve to determine the appropriate value of environmental factors to further predict the change and the center of gravity transfer of the suitable area under climate change. The optimized MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy, and the working curve area (AUC) of the subjects is 0.974. Under climatic conditions, the suitable area is 81.37 × 104 km2 in size and is mainly located in the south and southeast of China. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable area are temperature (Bio1, Bio6, and Bio9), precipitation (Bio12 and Bio14) and NDVI. In future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area will spread to higher latitudes. This distribution will provide an important theoretical basis for relevant departments to rapidly prevent and control the invasion of S. invicta.
Highlights
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.Biological invasion has become one of the global environmental problems of the 21st century [1]
When the parameters were set to feature combination (FC) = LQH and RM = 3, the values of mean AUC.diff and mean OR10 were significantly lower than those of the Maxent model under the default
How when the parameters were set to FC = LQH and RM = 3, the values of mean AUC.dif mean OR10 were significantly lower than those of the Maxent model6 of under the d parameters (Figure 2), indicating that the optimized model is helpful in reducing the plexity of the model, avoiding over-fitting of species data, and enhancing the abil predict the suitable area
Summary
Biological invasion has become one of the global environmental problems of the 21st century [1]. With the intensification of the process of global economic integration, China’s trade and transportation industry is developing rapidly, biological invasion occurs increasingly frequently, and the harm of invasive species is becoming increasingly serious [2]. Since the 20th century, large-scale biological invasions have occurred mainly in farmland, forests, grasslands, islands, wetlands, rivers, oceans, and nature reserves [3]. In 2012, relevant scholars compiled a list of alien invasive species in China, listing a total of 488 invasive species living in terrestrial ecosystems, inland waters, and marine ecosystems, including 171 species of animals, 265 species of plants, 26 species of fungi,
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