Abstract
We examine the impact of +1.5 °C and +2 °C global warming levels above pre-industrial levels on consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD), two key indicators for extreme precipitation and seasonal drought. This is done using climate projections from a multi-model ensemble of 25 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The RCMs take boundary conditions from ten global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. We define CDD as the maximum number of consecutive days with rainfall amount less than 1 mm and CWD as the maximum number of consecutive days with rainfall amount more than 1 mm. The differences in model representations of the change in CDD and CWD, at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming, and based on the control period 1971−2000 are reported. The models agree on a noticeable response to both 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming for each index. Enhanced warming results in a reduction in mean rainfall across the region. More than 80% of ensemble members agree that CDD will increase over the Guinea Coast, in tandem with a projected decrease in CWD at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. These projected changes may influence already fragile ecosystems and agriculture in the region, both of which are strongly affected by mean rainfall and the length of wet and dry periods.
Highlights
The impacts of the changing climate ripple through the socio-economic fabric of society, affecting key sectors from water resources, human health, transportation, agriculture, to energy and tourism (Murray and Ebi 2012)
Using an ensemble of 25 CORDEX simulations, this present study investigates the comparative influence of 1.5 ◦C and 2 ◦C global warming on extreme rainfall characteristics in West Africa with focus on consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD) across the region
The difference of the global warming levels (GWLs) indicate a spatial north-south temperature gradient which may result in modulating the dynamics of rainfall formation and distribution over West Africa
Summary
The impacts of the changing climate ripple through the socio-economic fabric of society, affecting key sectors from water resources, human health, transportation, agriculture, to energy and tourism (Murray and Ebi 2012) These impacts include changes in extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, etc coupled with the attendant risks of potential displacement of vulnerable populations, crop yield reduction or failure, food insecurity, and water scarcity. (Tebaldi and Wehner 2018), research quantifying differences in climate extremes between the 1.5 ◦C and 2 ◦C global warming levels is lacking (King et al 2017) This is especially true for West Africa where recent studies have shown that 1.5 ◦C−2 ◦C global warming will have strong impacts on the region, owing to its low adaptive capacity (Schleussner et al 2016). There is need for more investigations of the potential impacts of a 1.5 ◦C−2 ◦C warmer world
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