Identifying hot spots of long-duration extreme climate events in the northwest arid region of China and implications for glaciers and runoff

Abstract

China's Northwest Arid Region (NAR), with dry and cold climate conditions and glaciers widely developed in the high mountains, provides vital water resources for Asia. The consecutive cold, warm, dry and wet days have much higher impacts on the water cycle process in this region than extreme temperature and precipitation events with short durations but high intensities. Parametric and nonparametric trend analysis methods widely used in climatology and hydrology are employed to identify the temporal and spatial features of the changes in the consecutive cold, warm, dry and wet days in the NAR based on China's 0.5° × 0.5° meteorological grid datasets of daily temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2018. This study found that (1) the consecutive cold days (Cold Spell Duration Indicator, CSDI), and the consecutive dry days (CDD) decreased, while the consecutive warm days (Warm Spell Duration Indicator, WSDI), and the consecutive wet days (CWD) increased from 1961 to 2018, (2) and the eastern Kunlun Mountains were the hot spots where all of these consecutive climate indices changed significantly, (3) and the changes in these consecutive climate indices were highly correlated with the rise in the Global Mean Land/Ocean Temperature Index. The results indicated that winters tended to warmer and dryer and summer became hotter and wetter during 1961–2018 in the NAR under the global warming, which can lead to the sustained glacier retreat and the increase in summer runoff in this region, and the eastern Kunlun Mountains are the area where could face high risks of water scarcity and floods if the changes in these climate indices continue in the future. Given the vulnerability of the socio-economic systems in the NAR to a water shortage and floods, it is most crucial to improve the strategies of water resources management, disaster prevention and risk management for this region under climate change.