Missile Contagion

Abstract

Since 2005 an astonishing number of new missile-development programmes have appeared in the Middle East, South Asia and Northeast Asia. The surprising fact is that land-attack cruise missiles, not ballistic missiles, constitute the primary problem, yet ballistic missiles, and defences against them, command virtually the exclusive attention of decision-makers. Perversely, the United States’ quest to sell ballistic-missile defences may be hastening cruise-missile proliferation. Knowing that defences are not nearly as effective against cruise missiles as they are against ballistic missiles, several states have turned to the former to complement the latter. Others, frustrated with the high cost of ballistic-missile defence, have turned to cheaper cruise missiles linked to pre-emptive strike doctrines. In either case, absent policy adjustments, the unintended by-product is likely to be regional arms races and crisis instability.