Abstract
In the last decade, there has been a growing interest in cruise missiles in India and Pakistan. A characteristic counterforce weapon with high speed and precision, stealth capabilities and multiple launch platforms, cruise missiles are linked to the preemptive capabilities of a state; an antithesis to mutual vulnerability important to maintain nuclear deterrence. However, like any other weapon, they cannot be neatly described as either weapon for offense for first strike or weapon for defense in second strike. This makes it imperative to study the implications of the cruise missiles of Pakistan and India on strategic stability. The paper is divided into three parts; the first part studies the characteristics of cruise missile and builds a theoretical framework to understand how counterforce systems like cruise missiles impact strategic stability between two states. The second part studies the impact of cruise missiles in South Asia on regional strategic stability from three aspects: deterrence stability, crisis stability and arms race stability. In the third part, the conclusion, it is found that while the dynamics of deterrence stability and crisis stability are not affected by cruise missiles, it proves to be destabilizing for arms race. Cruise missiles in South Asia reinforce the cyclic dynamics of offense and defense, prompting both countries to invest in their security, which on the long run will impinge on deterrence stability and crisis stability between the two countries.
Highlights
The advent of cruise missile took place with the German V-1, known as the buzz bomb, which the Germans used against the French forces in the Second World War
The paper is divided into three parts; the first part studies the characteristics of cruise missile and builds a theoretical framework to understand how counterforce systems like cruise missiles impact strategic stability between two states
The conclusion, it is found that while the dynamics of deterrence stability and crisis stability are not affected by cruise missiles, it proves to be destabilizing for arms race
Summary
The advent of cruise missile took place with the German V-1, known as the buzz bomb, which the Germans used against the French forces in the Second World War. Since cruise missiles can be used in conventional strikes, they consequentially undermine crisis stability by enabling an attacker to launch a first strike on an adversary’s nuclear forces without using nuclear weapons This has, in effect, eroded the distinction between strategic and tactical operations, and in a situation where the enemies fear for the security of their weapons, are more tempted to use them or lose them, which leads to escalation and this situation can immensely undermine strategic stability.[26] using conventionally armed missiles against the conventional forces of a nuclear weapon state might be misinterpreted by that state as an attack aimed at its nuclear forces, which could again lead to escalation. Considering the effect of cruise missiles on deterrence stability in South Asia, there are two questions that must be addressed; first, what could be the role of cruise missiles in India’s limited war doctrine and second, how Pakistan would operationalize cruise missiles in its full spectrum deterrence strategy against India
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