Migration Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of New England Showing Movements down the Urban Hierarchy and Ensuing Impacts on Real Estate Markets

Abstract

As the COVID-19 pandemic swept across the United States, the media began reporting stories of people leaving cities for rural destinations, setting off frenzied real estate activity in receiving communities. This article builds a case study of New England using nonconventional data collected from mobile devices as a proxy for population to explore the temporal and spatial patterns of movement down the urban hierarchy since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Two research questions guide the analysis: (1) How have urban–rural migration systems in New England shifted since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic? (2) In what ways have real estate markets been affected by these apparent migration shifts? The analysis reveals shifts of population away from metropolitan core areas of the region and into micropolitan and noncore counties. These population shifts were most pronounced in late summer and fall 2020 with loosening travel restrictions. By the end of 2020, migration systems in New England once more resembled prepandemic patterns. Further, these places down the urban hierarchy consistently showed more substantial increases in real estate activity as reflected in rising prices, reduced inventories, and increased sales volume. These real estate dynamics suggest urban to rural migration during the COVID-19 pandemic might be initiating new waves of rural gentrification.