Real Estate Market: Trends and Developments

Since the reform of the housing system in 1998, China's housing industry has developed vigorously, and the real estate market's output and prices have rocketed, hence becoming a key engine for economic growth. Compared with developed countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States, the Chinese real estate market has a much shorter history of development. In the infancy stage of Chinese real estate there existed various problems in the i.e., the continuous rise in housing prices, housing bubbles, land finance, ghost cities, etc, which have seriously affected the long-term stable development of Chinese real estate market. In 2003, the Circular of the State Council on Promoting the Continuous and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Markets first proposed that significance of the continuous and healthy development of the real estate markets shall be fully understood. Since then, China has put forward the concept of the real estate market, and the government has frequently issued various measures for macro-control, but they have little effect. One of the principle reasons for the ineffectiveness of multiple housing macro-control policies is the lack of systematic research on the fundamental question of what is meant by a healthy real estate market. Therefore, research on the health of the real estate market has become an important issue that needs to be resolved urgently in the field of macroeconomics and policies in China. This research defines the health of the real estate applies theories in macroeconomics, real estate economics and public policies, uses quantitative analysis tools such as analytic hierarchy process and regression analysis, refers to existing research both in China and abroad, considers the characteristics of the domestic real estate and strives to establish a system for evaluating the health of the Chinese real estate market. Taking the comprehensive data of 35 large and medium-sized cities' real estate markets commonly recorded in the national real estate control statistics as samples, cluster analysis and analytic hierarchy process are used to comprehensively evaluate the health of the Chinese real estate market. From research, it is found that the Chinese real estate market in the 15 years from 2004 to 2018 (which involve the 10 years when the real estate market has been intensively regulated by government policies), tends to be in the normal range as a whole, with the exception of 2004 and 2014 when there was a slightly cold situation, and 2010 when the market was slightly hot. With the central government's policies encouraging development of the real estate it has gradually become a pillar industry of the national economy, and formed a close symbiotic relationship with the macroeconomy. This research also emphasizes the importance of persisting in regulations of the housing market and provides suggestions on perfecting the real estate market policy regulation system. The health index of the real estate market of China and important cities derived can provide quantitative analysis tools for national real estate macro-control and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the real estate market.

The article examines the current trends of the real estate market in Ukraine as an important component of the economy, which performs not only an economic, but also a social role, promotes sustainable development and inclusion. The structure, subject composition, features, existing problems, advantages, and disadvantages of the real estate market are characterized. The stages of historical genesis are analysed, and crisis periods are singled out. The main trends are formulated taking into account the current state of the primary and secondary real estate market and regional differences. The real estate market of Ukraine is an important component of the economy, performing not only an economic, but also a social role, contributing to sustainable development and inclusion. Despite the beginning of the historical genesis from the moment of the declaration of independence of Ukraine and privatization processes, even now this industry is still at the stage of its formation and development, facing a number of external and internal challenges, under the influence of which the existing problems are clearly visible: the uneven development of certain segments of the real estate market , low solvency of citizens, imperfection and conflict of the legislative framework, low investment potential, especially in relation to foreign investments, guaranteeing the rights of investors. The purpose of the study is to identify and analyse current trends in the real estate market in Ukraine. The article analyzes the stages of development of the domestic real estate market, the main subjects and target groups of consumers in the real estate market in Ukraine (young families; investors; pensioners; students; business class; tenants; rural residents) with their specific needs and opportunities, which is of great importance for understanding and forecasting market dynamics, as well as forming effective business strategies in the real estate industry. The peculiarities of the real estate market, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of the real estate market from the point of view of entrepreneurial and commercial activity, are summarized and analysed. The structure of the real estate market is characterized depending on various criteria. A dynamic analysis of the real estate market is carried out, taking into account the consequences of crisis phenomena, including the crises of 2008, 2014-2015, the COVID-19 pandemic and the large-scale russian invasion of 2022. Before the start of the war, the real estate market of Ukraine was growing and developing rapidly, demonstrating active construction in almost all regions of Ukraine, prices steadily rose. On the other hand, construction has stopped in many regions, and the volume of transactions on the secondary market is falling. Trends in the real estate market are formulated taking into account regional features. Special attention is paid to state affordable housing programs. Keywords: affordable housing, construction, lending, mortgage, primary market, real estate, secondary market.

The Taiwan real estate market on the basis of private ownership has been developed for forty to fifty years with economic growth. During this period, Taiwan real estate market experienced three main prosperous cycles. But after 1991, due to real estate market oversupply, economic growth slowdown and domestic and international circumstance factor influence, it still has been in the long time murky condition up to now. Traditional opinions of “Holding real estate means the symptom of wealth” and keeping real estate for appreciation are questionable for investors now. The economic system of Mainland China has significant transformation since it had executed open policy in 1979. The real estate system still remains the land on the basis of public ownership, but the leasehold estates could be transferred after 1988. After that time, real estate in Mainland China becomes “the circulation commodity” which inspires the market development. It is the recent ten years that Mainland Chin real estate market has developed maturely and vigorously due to rapid economy growth. Above all, in the near future, the 2008 Olympic Games at Beijing and the 2010 World Exhibition at Shanghai will motivate the Mainland China economy and real estate market to grow faster. Especially for Shanghai, it will become the “shining pearl” in Mainland China and attract global investors’ sights. On the analysis of current development trend, Shanghai real estate market is worth investing in the few years. But Investors should have more concern about the different real estate ownership and development stage from Taiwan and Mainland China, then you can have an more exact estimate and make a right investment decision. Based on the basic environment, industrial development and the key points of real estate investment decision-making of Taiwan and Mainland China, the project with case study approach of which selected Taipei and Shanghai office buildings as research objective makes practical investment analysis. The main purposes of project are as following: 1.To compare the current circumstance of real estate investment environment in Taiwan and Mainland China, describe the trend of the market development, then generalize those factors which affect the real estate market development. 2. To analyze the investment profit by means of case study which compares with the investment process, the fixed rental income and expected appreciation of real estate. 3. To consider the Taiwan and Mainland China real estate market and monetary market, and study the feasibility of real estate investment in above areas by using the modern financial analysis tools; also analyze the different investment decision-making and find out the key points for investors’reference. The project makes four conclusions as followings: 1. Based on present Taiwan and Mainland China real estate market conditions and predicted development tendency, the Shanghai commercial real estate is a good choice of making investment in the short and middle term period if in the income approach point of view. But in the maturity of political and economic development, the stability of market trading and the estates value points of view, the Shanghai commercial real estate is more potentially risky and uncertain than Taipei. So the long-term investment profit of real estate in Taipei still cannot be negligent. 2. The reasons of the present Shanghai commercial real estate investment profit higher than Taipei are the lower real estate price and higher rental income. The case study of the project verifies the present investment value of Taiwan and Mainland China real estate. But the long- term investment profit in the above areas depends on the accurate estimate of real estate market development in the future. 3. Investors should estimate the marginal utility of the rate of return and mortgage rate, and also consider the tax shield when they make real estate investment by mortgage. 4. Long-term investors should carefully consider the local government policy, administrative rules, exchange rate risk and the estates value of real estate. These factors all sufficiently affect the investment profit.

The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of the full-scale invasion of the Ukrainian real estate market in terms of assessing the supply of commercial and non-commercial real estate, taking into account changes in construction activity, price levels and the transformation of housing demand. The study aims to identify the main trends and factors that have contributed to the transformation of supply in the real estate market, as well as to outline opportunities for its stabilization and development in the post-conflict recovery. Design/methodology/approach – The research employs a thorough and systematic methodological framework, integrating a broad literature review with qualitative and quantitative analyses. The paper applies a systematic approach, which made it possible to study the real estate market as a complex system, taking into account the interaction of various economic factors; dialectical logic, induction and deduction are used to analyse the prospects for strategic development of the real estate market; comparative and statistical analysis is used to assess the dynamics of housing prices and construction volumes; the problem-oriented method is used to identify key problems that impede the stabilisation of the real estate market in the context of war; index method – for assessing the level of concentration of the primary real estate market in Ukraine in numerical terms.SWOT analysis, which is used to. Findings – Trends in the development of the real estate market before and during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine were studied. An analysis of the areas of residential and non-residential buildings at the beginning of construction and put into operation in 2021–2023 was carried out. Factors affecting the transformation of demand for real estate due to the impact of the war are analyzed. Price changes on the primary and secondary real estate market in safe regions in 2021–2023 were analyzed. Using the Herfindahl-Hirschman and Lind indices, the market shares of developers in the primary real estate market of Ukraine in 2023–2024 were estimated, an analysis of market concentration was conducted, as a result of which the main market participants in both years were identified. SWOT-analysis was used to identify internal strengths and weaknesses, as well as external factors influencing the real estate market of Ukraine under economic instability. Practical significance – The research provides valuable insights for companies aiming to enhance their operational performance in the real estate market in the post-war recovery period. The study offers a comprehensive framework for understanding how the identified factors influencing the development environment of real estate market participants can be strategically used to improve customer experience and optimise internal processes, ensuring sustainable competitiveness in the long term. Originality/value – This study contributes to the existing literature by offering an in-depth analysis of the factors influencing the real estate market in the context of economic instability. The study emphasises the importance of the significant transformations in the structure of supply, demand and prices in the primary and secondary residential and non-residential real estate markets, taking into account the differentiation of these changes by regions where the level of security and affordability of housing varies significantly. The above outlines specific approaches to the adaptation of the real estate market in the crisis. The conclusions highlight the prospects for Ukrainian real estate market participants to attract international grants and finance innovative construction projects, as well as to develop environmentally friendly and autonomous solutions, diversify their business lines, focus on safe regions, and expand cooperation with international partners.

The article summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific discussion on pricing in the real estate market in Ukraine during the crisis. The main purpose of the study is to simulate real estate pricing during the crisis. The systematization of literary sources and approaches to solving the problem of simulation of pricing in the real estate market during the crisis has shown that the real estate market in modern conditions fluctuates and depends on many factors. This market is quite dynamic and constantly evolving. At the same time, the issue of pricing in the real estate market significantly depends on a system of factors, in particular, market dynamics, location of real estate, exchange rate, development of environmental infrastructure, construction stage, reliability of the developer, etc. The influence of these factors on the process of simulation of pricing in the real estate market in Ukraine is determined. The urgency of this scientific problem is due to the fact that macroeconomic instability in Ukraine in the face of inflation and devaluation has a negative impact on the overall economic situation and, consequently, leads to a dynamic negative change in real estate value, so it is important to determine the features of simulation of the real estate pricing in a crisis. The study of simulation of the real estate pricing during the crisis in the article is carried out in the following logical sequence: determination of the current state of the real estate market in Ukraine, substantiation of factors and their impact on real estate pricing simulation in a crisis. As part of the study of the simulation of the real estate pricing in a crisis, we have used the following general scientific methods: analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, generalization, systematization, mathematical analysis, statistical analysis, and have chosen 2010–2018 as the study period. The evaluation of models when evaluating the real estate market in Ukraine is the object of the study. Pricing in the real estate market in the crisis is the subject of the study. The practical value of the work is due to the fact that its results can be used to improve the quality and efficiency of valuation activities during property valuation (on the example of the residential real estate market) in Ukraine. In the future, it will be relevant to study the features of the use of economic and mathematical models to optimize the simulation of pricing in the real estate market of Ukraine.

The purpose of this chapter was to consider such an industry as construction, and the levers that affect the construction of residential real estateReal estate, the costCost of construction, and the value of the real estateReal estate, constantly influencing the market value of the real estateReal estate in the market. The authors have thoroughly researched and identified the factors that affect the market value of the real estateReal estate. As a result of the conducted research, a conclusion was made regarding the value of the real estateReal estate and trends in the further development of the real estate marketReal estate market and the construction industry. Economic, political, and market factors were considered in more detail. The factors under the influence of which the development trends of the real estate marketReal estate market of Ukraine were formed in 2021 and at the beginning of 2022 are listed. The authors used geoinformation systems to identify trends and patterns of influence of the construction industry on the real estate marketReal estate market.

The history of Estonian real estate market dates back to the early 1990s and its development, starting from its early days, has been fast in general, though variable in rates in different sectors of the real estate market. The article seeks to provide an overview of and analyse development of different real estate market sectors over the last decade, discussing separately the supply and demand side. The development of the market has been investigated from three main aspects. First, we evaluate the development and changes of Estonian economic environments and provide linkages to the general development of the real estate market. The subjects of research here are: GDP, inflation, interest rates, total turnover of the real estate market and real estate prices. Second, in greater detail we analyse demand and factors that influence demand in individual real estate market sectors. Third, we investigate supply of the real estate market, or real estate development activity, the factors that facilitate and inhibit this development.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate and compare the extreme behavior of securitized real estate and stock market returns as well as their value‐at‐risk (VaR) dynamics in international investing. Extreme value theory using the block maxima method is applied to ten securitized real estate and equity market indices representing Asian, European and North American markets.Design/methodology/approachThe paper models the maxima and minima of all return series within the extreme value theory (EVT) framework and derive the VaR estimates. It then compares the VaR estimates derived from the EVT and the normal distribution and investigates the impact of clustered returns on the VaR estimates. Finally, both the conventional standard deviation measure and VaR method are conducted to evaluate and compare the impact of the Asian financial turmoil on the real estate and stock market risk profiles.FindingsEvidence shows that Asian real estate and equity maxima and minima return series are characterized by a fat‐tailed Fréchet distribution. The frequency and severity of extreme Asian real estate returns are greater than their European and North American counterparts. Securitized real estate markets are riskier than the broader stock markets before and during the Asian financial turmoil. In contrast, many stock markets become riskier after the financial crisis with their VaRs higher than the equivalent VaR estimates for the real estate series.Research limitations/implicationsKnowledge about real estate market returns exhibit extreme behavior can help investors and fund managers understand the distribution of real estate market returns better and obtain potentially more accurate real estate return forecasts.Practical implicationsInternational real estate portfolio risk management should include both extreme risks and standard deviations. Accordingly, global investors should be even more cautious in formulating their diversification strategies since gains from diversification can be reduced significantly by the severity of extreme return levels.Originality/valueThe paper characterizes the distribution of extreme returns for a broad spectrum of international securitized real estate markets from three continents. The extreme value investigation is also conducted for broader stock markets corresponding to the individual real estate markets. The July 1997 turmoil that occurred in Asian financial markets provides interesting exploratory opportunities within which this paper estimates and compares the extreme market risk with the conventional standard deviation measure.

The purpose of this chapter was to consider such an industry as construction, and the levers that affect the construction of residential real estateReal estate, the costCost of construction, and the value of the real estateReal estate, constantly influencing the market value of the real estateReal estate in the market. The authors have thoroughly researched and identified the factors that affect the market value of the real estateReal estate. As a result of the conducted research, a conclusion was made regarding the value of the real estateReal estate and trends in the further development of the real estate marketReal estate market and the construction industry. Economic, political, and market factors were considered in more detail. The factors under the influence of which the development trends of the real estate marketReal estate market of Ukraine were formed in 2021 and at the beginning of 2022 are listed. The authors used geoinformation systems to identify trends and patterns of influence of the construction industry on the real estate marketReal estate market.

PurposeThis study aims to empirically examine the relationship between real estate and stock market of Pakistan.Design/methodology/approachThe data of two real estate indices (house price index and plot price index) are taken for the Pakistan and its four big cities, i.e. Lahore, Karachi, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. It estimates the integration between series by applying the Johansen cointegration test. Moreover, the vector error correction model is applied to examine the short and long-run causal relationships between series.FindingsThe findings show that the real estate markets are cointegrated with the stock market. They imply that the real estate and stock markets are good substitutes in investment allocation, but investors cannot get the benefit of diversification by making a portfolio of real estate and stock markets in Pakistan. Moreover, the long-run causality is observed from majority house markets to the stock market, whereas short-run causality is evident from majority plot markets to the stock market. Hence, the real estate market leads the stock market in the short run and long run, suggesting the credit-price effect in the majority of real estate markets in Pakistan. These causality results are helpful for investors in the forecasting of real estate and stock markets in Pakistan.Research limitations/implicationsThe limitation of the study is the lower number of observations (107), because house and land prices are only available in monthly frequency from January 2011 in Pakistan.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, no researcher has investigated the real estate and stock market nexus in Pakistan. Therefore, this study focuses on examining the relationship between the real estate and stock market of Pakistan. The link between real estate and stock markets will provide useful insights to the portfolio managers, real estate companies, property agents, stockbrokers and investors.

The volatility of external and internal factors affecting the real estate market makes it necessary to study trends and predict the consequences of management decisions to prevent financial losses. The real estate market is a sphere of capital investment in real estate and a system of economic relations arising from real estate transactions. These relations arise when buying and selling real estate, leasing real estate, etc. Depending on the legal framework, external and internal financing conditions, and forms of property ownership, the real estate market is constantly changing and unique to each country, region, and city. To accurately evaluate real estate, it is necessary to monitor in detail all the changes taking place in the market. This article analyzes the factors that influence the formation of supply and demand in the real estate market. Economic factors have the greatest impact, namely: the level and dynamics of population income; differentiation of the population by income level; level of business development and its dynamics; changes in the structure of the business and its profitability; availability of financial resources; the state of alternative and related markets; prices in the real estate market; rental rates; risks of an investment in real estate; construction costs; prices and tariffs for utilities and energy resources. Social factors, such as population dynamics and age structure, the social structure of the population, crime rate and trends in crime, also significantly impact real estate market trends. The interaction of these factors ultimately determines the state and dynamics of supply and demand in the real estate market. At the same time, the direction of their influence may either coincide or differ for supply and demand. This can be better understood by identifying trends in supply and demand and their dependence on these factors. The article examines the history of price dynamics and systematizes the stages of the formation and development of the real estate market in Ukraine. The state of the real estate market during the crisis periods is analyzed and a forecast for the next year is made. Keywords: real estate market, real estate market dynamics, demand, offer, investment potential.

The authors present results of the study of the domestic residential real estate market, using the city of Moscow as an example. Importance of this study comes from the fact that the residential real estate market occupies a significant place in the national economy; that said, it is necessary to take into account its scale and development dynamics. On one hand, the development of the residential real estate market is always considered within our country’s social policy that is targeted at raising standards of living. Оn the other hand, players in various markets participate in the housing construction industry because in it are concentrated significant volumes of financial flows. For a more detailed economic and statistical analysis, the authors chose the most dynamically developing segment of residential real estate in Moscow - the market for new buildings. According to the authors, dynamics, and nature of change in the indicators of the capital market of primary real estate along with general market conditions was affected by legislative changes that have occurred in the construction and banking sectors.Given the heterogeneous development of the capital market in a large metropolis such as Moscow, the authors applied the clustering of districts using the results of comprehensive studies of the primary real estate market of previous years. For this study, four groups of factors were identified: characteristics of apartments, indicators of transport accessibility, the level of infrastructure development and the state of the environment. The information sources included databases of leading real estate companies such as CIAN, Metrium, Domofond (as of the end of May 2019), as well as official statistics from Mosgorstat, Mosecomonitoring, Unified Transport Portal. After the preliminary analysis of the data, sample was made of new buildings of the mass segment (economy and class comfort).Using regression analysis, the authors constructed models of the dependence of the cost per square meter of residential real estate on the market of new buildings in Moscow on several factors and identified the most significant of them. The results of the study presented in the article may be of interest to consulting companies, real estate agencies, employees of the banking sector, as well as local authorities for strategic planning of the development of the real estate market.

The article considers the actual problem of investing in the primary real estate market. The subject of the research is the residential real estate market in different regions of Ukraine. The purpose of the article is to research residential real estate on the primary market of Ukraine, depending on its condition. The type of repair has a significant impact on the final cost of an apartment in a new building. The ratio of the cost of an apartment without repairs and the cost of further repairs, as well as the region where the apartment is located, can provide an answer to the expediency of investing funds by the stakeholder. Such a large number of factors cannot be taken into account without the use of geographic information systems, which enable both the accumulation and processing of large data sets and the use of spatial reference. The purpose of the article is to study the changes in the cost of renting and selling m2 of the primary market of residential real estate depending on the city of Ukraine and the impact of different types of repairs on the real estate value. As well as determination of the capitalization rate by regions that were studied. During the research, general scientific methods of system analysis and geostatistics methods were used to transform data from a discrete to a continuous form of representation when processing arrays of data on various types of real estate. The work uses the direct capitalization method to determine the rate of return. During the research, cartograms were constructed for different cities of Ukraine regarding the average cost and rental rate per m2 of real estate in the primary market. The influence of various types of repairs on the value of real estate was studied. The capitalization rate was determined for the regions studied. Conclusions were drawn regarding the prospects for investing in the residential real estate market, as well as options for investing in real estate in different cities of Ukraine and obtaining maximum returns. The results obtained by the authors will be useful to stakeholders, realtors, appraisers and other market specialists for calculating returns on the primary real estate market.

China's real estate market has been fully developed, but there are also many problems. To solve these problems properly is of great practical significance to the healthy development of real estate market. Taking Beijing's real estate market as an example, this paper finds that Beijing's real estate market has some problems such as high price and real estate speculation. By canceling school district housing and adjusting housing price, the problems in real estate market can be effectively alleviated and the sustainable development of real estate market can be promoted. The analysis of this paper is beneficial to the high-quality development of China's real estate market.

The real estate market in Ukraine has always been an indicator of the development of the country's economy as a whole, as the housing market plays an important role in the national economy structure. The article examines the stages of development of the residential real estate market of Ukraine and its regional aspects. According to the research results, while depicting current situation in the residential real estate market of Ukraine, eight stages of its formation should be considered. The modern Ukrainian housing market began to take shape in the early 1990s as part of the process of transition from the planned economy model to the market one. The last stage - the eighth - began in 2009 and continues until now. At the eighth stage low activity of real estate sales is observed, and the value of objects depends on the type of real estate and location (region). As it was defined today the Ukrainian real estate market is stagnant, but the formation of regional housing markets in Ukraine is a very complex process and its development is affected by a large number of factors. Factors are classified into six groups: territorial, economic, legal, demographic and socio-psychological factors and factors that comprise qualitative characteristics of housing. Specific process of regional housing markets formation also affects rental price in the cities around the country. This article presents and compares the average apartment rental cost (by type) in the regional centers of Ukraine in January 2019 and 2018. Prices have risen the most in the cities of Lutsk and Sumy. The real estate rental market is a reflection of the socio-economic situation in the country as a whole, or a particular region or even a particular localition. The main driver of modern residential real estate market development in the regions of Ukraine and overcoming the state stable and depressed economy is to establish a balance between people’s ability to pay and pricing policy of developers.