Abstract
The paper presents a matrix based probabilistic approach to: (i) describing the process of accident initiation and propagation at four scale levels: the level of structural material, the level of individual components of a complex technical system, the systemic level, and the upper level of the system environment, and (ii) developing a risk assessment framework. The proposed approach is based on examining a chronological series of the subsequent discrete failure events occurring at various scale levels of the complex technical systems and its environment. This allows assessing not only the so-called direct risks that take into account for the expected monetary values of direct consequences of the accidents at the system disregarding losses inflicted by subsequent disturbances in the environment of the damaged system, but also indirect risks associated with secondary failures in the system environment. The approach provides an opportunity to describe multilevel fracture in a probabilistic formulation and to obtain an express assessment of risks induced by the complex technical systems.
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