Reducing the Level of Cognitive Distortions when Assessing the Vulnerability of Complex Technical Systems Based on Criterial Modeling Methods

Abstract

Cognitive distortions are systematic errors made by people who participate in managing a complex technical system. From 60 to 90% of disasters occur due to cognitive distortions in the complex technical system management. The purpose of this work is to develop a mathematical apparatus for estimating cognitive distortions when assessing the complex technical system vulnerability by using the criterial modeling methods. In this study, cognitive distortions are interpreted as various kinds of systematic errors, as well as traditional distortions that occur in certain situations and that are based on the misrepresentations about the vulnerability of complex technical system and on the need to make decisions about their parrying. Complex technical systems have allocated parts (managed subsystems), participation in the system of people, machines and the natural environment, material, energy and information links between parts of systems, as well as the links between the system under consideration and other systems, etc. The object of this study is to find cognitive distortions that have an impact on estimating complex technical system vulnerabilities. The subjects of this study are criterial modeling methods that make it possible to estimate cognitive distortions when assessing vulnerability at all the levels of complex technical system management and thereby reduce the risks of accidents and disasters. Examples of criterial modeling methods implementation for cognitive distortions estimation in the vulnerability of the banking and transport systems are given.