Maldivas y el delicado equilibrio entre India y China

Abstract

: Maldives is the smallest nation in South Asia in terms of population, area and GDP. Despite this, this small archipelago has great strategic importance, due to its location in the middle of international sea lines of communication in the Indian Ocean, and its proximity to the Indian mainland. The proposal of this article is to expose the changes that took place in the Maldives during the presidency of Abdulla Yameen in terms of internal politics and external relations, observing at what moment these two tendencies cross to be part of the same plot, and finally to analyze the consequences this has for the country and for the Indian Ocean Region. Numerous observers point out that since Abdullah Yameen came to power, domestic politics has been characterized by the deterioration of the young Maldivian democracy. At the same time, president Yameen has established strong political and economic ties with the People’s Republic of China. The convergence of these two trends occurred at the beginning of 2018, when the political crisis in the Maldives and the declaration of a state of emergency gave rise to speculation about a possible military intervention by India. China quickly positioned itself against such a possibility in the name of sovereignty and non-interference. The situation in the Maldives represents a serious challenge for India, since it opens the possibility for a future Chinese naval base in the archipelago, a few miles from Indian mainland. The democratic regression, moreover, is by itself a challenge to the status and credibility of India vis-a-vis the other States in its own backyard.