Abstract
The decarbonisation of the power sector is key to achieving the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global mean surface temperature rise to well below 2 °C. This will require rapid, national level transitions to low carbon electricity generation, such as variable renewables (VRE), nuclear and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage, across the world. At the same time it is essential that future power systems are sustainable in the wider sense and thus respect social, environmental and technical limitations. Here we develop an energy-land-water nexus modelling framework and use it to perform a scenario analysis with the aim of understanding the planning and operational implications of these constraints on Great Britain’s (GB) power system in 2050. We consider plausible scenarios for limits on installed nuclear capacity, siting restrictions that shape VRE deployment and water use for thermal power station cooling. We find that these factors combined can lead to up to a 25% increase in the system’s levelised cost of electricity (LCOE). VRE siting restrictions can result in an up to 13% increase in system LCOE as the deployment of onshore wind is limited while nuclear capacity restrictions can drive an up to 17% greater LCOE. We also show that such real-world limitations can cause substantial changes in system design both in terms of the spatial pattern of where generators are located and the capacity mix of the system. Thus we demonstrate the large impact simultaneously considering a set of nexus factors can have on future GB power systems. Finally, given our plausible assumptions about key energy-land-water restrictions and emission limits effecting the GB power system in 2050, the cost optimal penetration of VREs is found to be at least 50%.
Highlights
Limiting global mean surface temperature rise to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the headline goal of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, will require large scale changes to energy systems across the world, transitioning from carbon intensive today to ‘net-zero' emissions before 2100 [1]
First we look at the total system cost impact of the different restriction combinations on both our 2050 power system cases
Repeating this process for the other dimensions we find that land leads to a 5–13% levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) increase while water results in a 2–4% rise
Summary
Limiting global mean surface temperature rise to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the headline goal of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, will require large scale changes to energy systems across the world, transitioning from carbon intensive today to ‘net-zero' emissions before 2100 [1]. At the same time as achieving deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, these national level energy system transitions must simultaneously address the other two pillars of the socalled energy trilemma by keeping overall costs as low as possible and enhancing and maintaining energy security In this context, energy system optimisation models (ESOM), which capture a simplified representation of this complex problem, are often used to support and guide national and international policy making. Key low carbon generation technologies that can support such a transition take three main forms: variable renewables (VRE) such as solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind, nuclear power and fossil generation with carbon capture and storage (CCS), which is considerably less proven at scale and has a more uncertain role going forward It is this sector and these technology classes that will be the focus of this study
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