Abstract
Abstract Future power systems will require large shares of low-carbon generators such as renewables and power plants with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) to keep global warming below 2 °C. Intermittent renewables increase the system-wide demand for flexibility and affect the operation of thermal power plants. We investigate the operation of future power plants by first composing a comprehensive overview of the operational flexibility of current and future power plants. Next, a combined long-term optimization and hourly simulation is performed with the soft-linked MARKAL-NL-UU and REPOWERS models for The Netherlands in 2030 and 2050. We quantify and compare the technical and economic performance of power plants for four distinctly different future scenarios. We find that future low-carbon power systems will have large shares of intermittent renewable sources (19–42%) and also a 2–38% higher variability in residual load compared to the Baseline scenario. Hence, power plant operation will be more variable, which reduces their efficiency by 0.6–1.6% compared to the full-load efficiency. Enough flexibility is present in future power systems to accommodate renewables, due to advances in power plant flexibility and interconnectors. As a result, generators with CCS have a large market share (23–64% of power generated). Moreover, the current energy-based market model generates insufficient revenues: the price received per MWh covers only 84% (±30%) of the total generation costs per MWh of 77 €/MWh (±12€). This will discourage new investments in generation capacity and reduce power system adequacy. New or additional market designs may be required to ensure system adequacy in future power systems.
Highlights
In order to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, the European Commission has proposed to deeply reduce European Union greenhouse gas emissions by 40‐44% by 2030 and 80‐95% by 2050 compared to 1990 [1,2]
The transition to such low‐carbon power systems will significantly change the main constituents of the plant mix to low‐carbon generators such as installations based on renewable energy sources (RES), nuclear power plants and generators with carbon capture and storage (CCS) [3,4,5]
This study addresses these research gaps by answering the main question “How do power plants with CCS perform from a technical and an economic perspective in future low‐carbon electricity systems with large shares of intermittent renewable sources, and how do they affect the flexibility of these systems?” This study distinguishes itself by introducing a novel modeling toolbox, which consists of a soft‐linkage of a power system optimization model (MARKAL‐NL‐UU) and a power system simulation model (REPOWERS)
Summary
In order to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, the European Commission has proposed to deeply reduce European Union greenhouse gas emissions by 40‐44% by 2030 and 80‐95% by 2050 compared to 1990 [1,2]. The largest emission reductions are projected for the power sector: reductions of 54‐68% by 2030 and 93‐99% by 2050 compared to 2050 [1]. The transition to such low‐carbon power systems will significantly change the main constituents of the plant mix to low‐carbon generators such as installations based on renewable energy sources (RES), nuclear power plants and generators with carbon capture and storage (CCS) [3,4,5]. Intermittent RES may reduce the profitability of nuclear plants and generators with CCS by decreasing their capacity factor and lowering wholesale electricity prices. As stated by the IPCC SRREN report: “combined integration of IRES and IGCC/CCS or nuclear may pose special integration challenges” [9]
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