Light-duty passenger vehicle electrification in China from 2021 to 2050 and associated greenhouse gas emissions: A dynamic fleet perspective

Abstract

The electric vehicle is seen as a promising technology to decarbonize road transportation. However, the long-term and fleet-scale impacts of the electric vehicle promotion in China are still underexplored. To investigate the mitigation potential of light-duty passenger vehicles electrification, a dynamic fleet-based life cycle assessment framework is constructed to calculate the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China from 2021 to 2050. It is estimated that the annual fleet GHG emissions will peak at 1.10 ∼ 1.18 Gt between 2028 and 2031, and gradually decrease to 0.53 ∼ 1.04 Gt CO2 eq in 2050. Under the most sustainable pathway (SSP1), the aggressive electrification scenario (SSP1-EV2040) is projected to reduce accumulative life cycle GHG emissions by 5.4Gt CO2 eq (17 % of the accumulative emissions in SSP2-BAU). The regional distribution of GHG emissions and electricity use shows a downward trend from east to west, revealing the necessity of China’s regional-specified strategy..