Demystifying electric aircraft’s role in aviation decarbonization: Are first-generation electric aircraft cost-effective?

Abstract

This paper compares the operating costs of first-generation electric-powered aircraft with those of their conventional counterparts. We develop a cost model that incorporates both fixed and variable costs to evaluate the cost convenience of operating short-haul routes with electric aircraft. We find that first-generation electric aircraft have higher operating costs than conventional aircraft. However, reductions in aircraft price, maintenance requirements, and battery replacement costs, due to the consolidation of this technology, could soon make it convenient to deploy 19-seat electric aircraft on regional routes. Conversely, the most promising prospects for larger regional aircraft are anticipated in the medium-term with the advent of second-generation electric aircraft featuring significant technological enhancements. Substitution to electric aircraft is expected to have a limited contribution to aviation emissions reduction in the short-term – approximately 0.1% of emissions from intra-European flights – but this could increase substantially following upgrades in electric-powered aircraft technology expected in the medium-to-long term.