Le crédit d’impôt dédié au développement durable : une évaluation économétrique

Abstract

This article evaluates the incentive impact of the 2006 increase from 25% to 40% in the tax credit on residential energy-efficiency improvement for homeownerswho have lived for two years or less in a dwelling built before 1977. We estimate a triple-differences model combinedwith matching on exhaustive fiscal data. If the credit rate had stayed at 25%, one in fifteen eligible households among households filing tax returns and living in buildings completed between 1969 and 1976 would not have used this tax credit in 2006 ; the proportion would have risen to one in eight in 2007 and 2008. Unless we assume substantial CO 2 emission reductions after energy conservation investments, our model shows that public spending per tonne of CO 2 not emitted would exceed € 32, the social cost of carbon in France.