Abstract
Fossil fuel combustion releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere along with co-pollutants such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and others. These emissions result in environmental externalities primarily in terms of climate and air quality. Here we quantify the cost of co-pollutant emissions per ton of CO2 emissions from US electric power generation. We measure the co-pollutant cost of carbon (CPCC) as the total value of statistical life associated with US-based premature mortalities attributable to co-pollutant emissions, per mass of CO2. We find an average CPCC of ∼$45 per metric ton (mt) of CO2 for the year 2011 (in 2017 USD). This is ∼20% higher than the central Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) measure of climate damages that was used by the Obama administration in its regulatory impact analysis for the Clean Power Plan (CPP), and >8 times higher than the SCC used by the Trump administration in its analysis for the Plan’s repeal. At the state-level, the CPCC ranged from ∼$7/mt CO2 for Arizona to ∼$96/mt CO2 for New Jersey. We calculate the CPCC trends from 2002 to 2017 and find a 71% decrease at the national level, contributing to total savings of ∼$1 trillion in averted mortality from power plant emissions over this period. By decomposing the aggregate and fuel-specific co-pollutant intensities into simultaneous (CO2-driven) and autonomous components, we conclude that the CPCC trends originated mainly from targeted efforts to reduce co-pollutant emissions, e.g. through fuel switching (from coal to natural gas) and autonomous changes in co-pollutant emissions. The results suggest that the overall benefit to society from policies to curtail carbon emissions may be enhanced by focusing on pollution sources where the associated air-quality co-benefits are greatest. At the same time, continued efforts to reduce co-pollutant intensities, if technologically feasible, could help to mitigate the air-quality damages of the CPP’s repeal and replacement.
Highlights
Electric power generation from fossil fuel combustion is a significant driver of anthropogenic climate change and degraded air quality
We measure the co-pollutant cost of carbon (CPCC) as the total value of statistical life associated with US-based premature mortalities attributable to co-pollutant emissions, per mass of CO2
We report the CPCC, defined as the monetized value of early deaths attributable to co-pollutants per unit of CO2 emitted, for the US electric power generation sector
Summary
Electric power generation from fossil fuel combustion is a significant driver of anthropogenic climate change and degraded air quality. In the US, electric power generation was the largest single source of CO2 emissions in 2014, responsible for 39% of total CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion (US EPA 2016a). The sector has made progress in decarbonization with transportation becoming the largest emitting sector in 2016 (by a 4% margin), 35% of total CO2 emissions in 2017 were still attributable to electric power generation (US EPA 2019a). Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) resulting from these non-CO2 combustion by-products of electric power generation, including secondary PM2.5 derived from SO2 and NOx, was found to be associated with 52 200 [90% CI: 23 400–94 300] premature deaths nationwide in the year 2005 (Caiazzo et al 2013), SO2, NOx and PM2.5 emissions were estimated to be responsible for 68%, 14%, and 16% of these impacts respectively (Dedoussi et al in preparation). Dedoussi et al (in preparation) report a 50% decline in premature mortalities attributable to electric power generation between 2005 and 2011, and Lelieveld (2017) reports 35,700 [95% CI: 17 800–53 500] early deaths associated with 2015 power generation
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