Abstract
Today, transportation contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. However, new technologies are emerging and existing technologies are being further improved. This article presents the results of a comprehensive study on the development of drive-trains, resulting electricity and fuel consumption as well as emissions of CO2 and selected air pollutants in land transport in Germany. This includes a quantitative assessment of technological potentials and of resulting energy consumption and emissions. The scenario building followed an explorative approach. Only the scenario depicting a consistent transition towards electrified mobility and regulated emissions from the energy system leads to a significant reduction in transport related CO2 emissions. Yet, the analysis shows that it is unlikely that the German emission reduction target in 2030 for the transport sector will be met. Nevertheless, the integrated scenario analysis demonstrates that only a joint de-carbonization of both transport and electricity systems lead to a significant reduction of emissions.
Highlights
Introduction and objectivesLand-based transportation is still largely fossil fuel driven and causes high emissions of greenhouse gases, above all carbon dioxide (CO2), and air pollutants
We further identify the related energy consumption and impacts from the energy system
In the Reference scenario, conventional diesel and gasoline powertrains see a decrease in sales and are continuously substituted by full hybrid pow ertrains (G-hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), D-HEV) that make up for more than 55% of the passenger car stock of 43 million cars in 2040 (Fig. 3)
Summary
Introduction and objectivesLand-based transportation is still largely fossil fuel driven and causes high emissions of greenhouse gases, above all carbon dioxide (CO2), and air pollutants. A large-scale generation of synthetic fuels such as hydrogen or synthetic methane (power-togas – PtG) and synthetic liquid hydrocarbons (power-to-liquid – PtL) would require large amounts of additional renewable electricity (Michalski et al 2017; Dietrich et al, 2018). This energy requires installed capacities in Germany or in future supply regions such as countries within the sunbelt of the earth This energy requires installed capacities in Germany or in future supply regions such as countries within the sunbelt of the earth (see e.g. Pregger et al 2020)
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