Identification of Key Factors to Reduce Transport-Related Air Pollutants and CO2 Emissions in Asia

Abstract

Asian countries are major contributors to global air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, with transportation demand and emissions expected to increase. However, few studies have been performed to evaluate policies that could reduce transport-related emissions in the region. This study explores transport-related CO2 and air pollutant emissions in major Asian nations along with the impacts of transport, climate, and emission control policies using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)/Transport model. Our results show that by 2050, CO2 emissions in developing countries will be 1.4–4.7-fold greater than the levels in 2005, while most air pollutant emissions will show large reductions (mean annual reduction rates of 0.2% to 6.1%). Notably, implementation of transport, emission control, and carbon pricing policies would reduce CO2 emissions by up to 33% and other air pollutants by 43% to 72%, depending on the emission species. An emission control policy represents the strongest approach for short-term and mid-term reduction of air pollutants. A carbon pricing policy would lead to a direct reduction in CO2 emissions; more importantly, air pollutant emissions would also be effectively reduced. Shifting to public transportation in developing countries can also greatly influence emissions reductions. An increase in traffic speed shows relatively small effects, but can be meaningful in Japan.