Klimaanpassung in Land- und Forstwirtschaft – Ergebnisse eines Workshops der Ressortforschungsinstitute FLI, JKI und Thünen-Institut

Abstract

This Working Paper summarizes the results of a survey and a workshop, which were compiled and discussed by scientists of the research institutes Thunen-Institut, Julius Kuhn-Institut (JKI) and Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut (FLI) in autumn 2016. The aim of the workshop and the survey was to analyze the state of knowledge on climate change adaptation in BMEL departmental research and the future challenges of adaptation to climate change in German agriculture and forestry. German agriculture and forestry is affected by primary climate impacts such as steadily rising average temperatures, altered precipitation patterns and increasingly frequent extreme weather events that vary widely regionally and seasonally. In addition, secondary climate impacts such as increased pest and infection pressure, problems with controlling rodents in agriculture and forestry, a shift in vegetation phases or a change in product quality lead to higher cultivation and production risks. Many income-generating factors such as rising tropospheric ozone concentrations and their interaction with pest infestation and extreme weather events are still largely unexplained. However, the CO2 fertilization effect, higher temperatures and the extension of the vegetation period also offer opportunities for German agriculture, especially for crop production. Compared to other regions of the world, production conditions in Central Europe are expected to remain stable and favorable for crop production in the future. This includes opportunities to achieve stable, high and possibly increased crop yields and to improve the competitiveness of German agriculture on the world agricultural markets.In part, adaptation to crop production systems and livestock farming can respond to climate change with relatively simple measures. However, further measures and, above all, strategies for dealing with the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events are needed. Overall, a region-specific orientation of production systems is becoming increasingly important. In the forestry sector, it is essential to identify the tree species and provenances best adapted to the future climatic conditions of individual sites and to integrate them into the stands. At the same time, the identification of the genetic information of individual resistance and tolerance traits to abiotic and biotic pollutants should be intensively researched and the results used for the targeted breeding of resistant trees.For agriculture, adapted and tolerant varieties as well as yield models are needed, that can indicate damage caused by extreme weather events as well as by pests, but also positive factors and interactions. Models are also needed as basis for evaluating risk management systems. There is also a need for the development of (digital) decision-making tools for the best possible and most effective fertilization time, targeted irrigation or the use of pesticides. Adaptation measures should be evaluated on the basis of their costs and benefits from an economic, environmental and social point of view. In order to be able to work out recommendations for the cultivation of individual crops at different locations, the scientific analysis of the risks as well as further re-search into the opportunities that could arise from the expected climate changes are necessary. [...]