Influence of weather conditions and projected climate change scenarios on the suitability of Vitis vinifera cv. Carignan in Rioja DOCa, Spain

M.C Ramos,F Martínez De Toda

doi:10.1007/s00484-022-02258-6

Abstract

Grape development and its quality are highly dependent on soil and weather conditions. Under the progressive warming, which can affect the suitability of typical varieties grown in a given area, the knowledge of the vine response to changes in climate is essential to stablish strategies to maintain the viticulture sector. This research presents an analysis of phenology and grape composition of the Carignan cultivar, during a 13-year period, at two locations in Rioja DOCa. Based on the results obtained and the projected changes in climate under climate change scenarios (RC4.5 and RCP8.5), the response of this cultivar was evaluated. Differences in the phenological dates of up to 18, 29 and 40 days, for flowering, veraison and harvest, respectively, were observed between the warmest and the coolest years. An advance of up to 5, 8 and 11 days, respectively, for the mentioned stages, is projected under the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050, which could be near 1.5*times higher under the RCP8.5 scenario. These advances will be mainly driven by the temperatures recorded in the previous period. Grape acidity was mainly driven by water availability, in particular during ripening, which imply a slight projected reduction due to precipitation changes but not significant effect due to increasing temperatures. The phenolic composition could be positively affected by increasing temperatures and increasing water deficits, since this variety does not always reach a complete maturity at present. Thus, under the projected warming scenarios, the suitability of Carignan in Rioja DOCa was confirmed.

Highlights

Climate warming and the lack of water in some areas will challenge growing vines, in particular those varieties with earlier phenology and those less resistant to droughts
The results obtained in this study showed that for this variety, when either temperature and water availability were considered together, the effect of temperature on acidity was not significant or it was hidden, being the effect of the water availability the dominant effect
The response of the Carignan variety cultivated in the central part of the Rioja DOCa, under a wide range of weather conditions, allowed extracting information about what are the main climatic drivers for this variety, and how it could be affected under warmer scenarios

Summary

Introduction

Climate warming and the lack of water in some areas will challenge growing vines, in particular those varieties with earlier phenology and those less resistant to droughts. The expected increase in temperatures may have significant impacts on sugar content (Greer and Weston 2010) and alcohol levels (Duchêne and Schneider 2005) but can lead to a decoupling between sugar contents and phenolic compounds (Martínez de Toda and Balda 2015; Sadras and Moran 2012). Vine water status can have significant impacts on berry weight (Ojeda et al 2001) and shoot growth (Pellegrino et al 2005), and on other grape components such as acidity (Barnuud et al 2014; Sweetman et al 2014), anthocyanins and phenolic compounds (Greer and Weedon 2014; Pérez-Álvarez et al 2021; Calderan et al 2021).

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Conclusion