Abstract
The current study, conducted in semi-arid Machakos and Kitui Counties of Kenya, simulated effect of climate change (CC) on finger millet yield under different soil fertilizer inputs (SFI), tillage practices (TP) and projected CC scenarios using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. A randomized complete block design with split plot arrangement was employed. Main plots were TP; oxen plough-OP, ridges and furrows-RF with SFI; Farm yard manure-FYM, Triple super phosphate-TSP + Calcium Ammonium Nitrate-CAN (TSP+CAN) and no fertilizer input as split-plots. The CC scenarios considered were; Current Rainfall (R0) and Temperature (T0) provided the baseline, R1 (R0+10% increase in rainfall), R2 (R0-10% decrease in rainfall), T1 (T0 + 20C) and T2 (the combined effects of 10% decrease in rainfall and 20C increase in temperature (-10%+20C). Significantly (P≤0.001) higher finger millet yields were obtained in TSP+CAN treated plots compared to FYM and control in both Kitui (with higher yields) and Machakos. Comparatively, finger millet yields were well simulated with moderate RMSE (1.04, 0.94) values in OP and RF in Kitui and low values (0.18) in OP in Machakos). Simulated finger millet yields mirrored measured yields, and were higher in Kitui (RF) than Machakos (OP) with TSP+CAN recording highest simulated yields compared to FYM and control. R1 (R0+10% rainfall) registered significantly high finger millet yields under OP and RF with application of TSP+CAN in both sites. The lowest finger millet yields, across sites were noted in T2 (-10% rainfall+20C), in decreasing order; TSP+CAN; FYM and control under OP and RF. Finger millet yields measured and simulated, insitu and across CC scenarios, indicated that application of TSP+CAN under conservation tillage practices (RF in Kitui and OP in Machakos) consistently gave superior yields compared to FYM and control. In the event of change of climate favouring increased rainfall (R1), finger millet grown under RF and OP with application of TSP+CAN may have the potential to adapt to climate change and enhance food and nutritional security. Further studies, mainly focusing on moisture conservation and breeding of drought tolerant crops, are nonetheless recommended to generate possible CC adaptation strategies under R2, T1 and T2 possible climate change scenarios in semi-arid regions of Kenya.
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