The Impacts of Anthropogenic and Climate Change Forcings on Water Resources Demands and Availability in Jordan in the Near Future

Abstract

Abstract The present paper evaluates the composite risk of anthropogenic and climate change on the future water status in Jordan during the period 2030–2050. The projected water status in the country is evaluated based on the more likely population growth and climate change scenarios. The most likely figure for the population of Jordan, excluding refugees from neighboring countries, in 2040 would be ∼15 million people. Given this likely projection, though conservative, annual water needs for the domestic sector alone are expected to be between 700 and 800 million m3, with the current level of water consumption. A rise in near surface air temperature by 2 °C and a drop in total precipitation by 15%, as projected by most Global Circulation Models, would diminish renewable water resources in the mountainous region by ∼ 25–40%, being more severe as aridity increases.1. IntroductionThere is almost a consensus among earth scientists that the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is lea...