Improved engineering-economic model of residential energy use. [1970-2000

Abstract

An improved version of the ORNL residential energy use model was developed to simulate energy use in the residential sector from 1970 through 2000. The model provides considerable detail on annual energy uses by fuel, end use, and housing type; and also estimates annual equipment installations and ownership, equipment energy requirements, structural thermal integrities, fuel expenditures, equipment costs, and costs for improving thermal integrities on new and existing housing units. Thus, the model provides considerable detail on residential energy uses and associated costs. These details are useful for evaluating alternative energy conservation policies, programs, and technologies for their energy and economic effects during the next quarter century. The present version of the model deals with four fuels, eight end uses, and three housing types. Each of these 96 fuel use components is calculated each year as a function of stocks of occupied housing units and new construction, equipment ownership by fuel and end use, thermal integrity of housing units, average unit energy requirements for each equipment type, and usage factors that reflect household behavior. Simulations of energy use from 1960 to 1975 show that the model accurately predicts historical data on aggregate energy use, energy use by fuel, energy usemore » by end use, and equipment ownership market-shares. A reference projection developed with the model shows residential energy use growing from 17.5 GGJ (10/sup 18/ joules) in 1975 to 18.5 GGJ in 1980 and 26.6 GGJ in 2000, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent. Electricity increases its share of the energy budget from 44 percent in 1975 to 67 percent in 2000. Shares provided by gas, oil, and other fuels all decline during this period.« less