Engineering-economic model of residential energy use. [From 1970 to year 2000

Abstract

This report describes a comprehensive engineering-economic computer model used to simulate energy use in the residential sector from 1970 to 2000. The purpose of the model is to provide an analytical tool with which to evaluate a variety of conservation policies, technologies, and strategies for their impacts on residential energy use and fuel expenditures over time. The present version of the model deals with energy use at the national level for four fuels (electricity, gas, oil, and other); six end uses (space heating, water heating, refrigeration, cooking, air conditioning, and other); and three housing types (single-family units, apartments, and trailers). Each of these fuel uses is determined for each year of the simulation as the product of: stock of occupied housing units, fraction of homes using each fuel for each end use, average annual energy requirement for each type of equipment, average thermal integrity for each housing type, and household usage behavior for each fuel and end use. Simulations of energy use from 1960 to 1974 show that the model does an excellent job of forecasting historical fuel use data in aggregate, by fuel, and by end use. The baseline forecast shows total fuel use growing from 17.6 GGJ (10/supmore » 18/ J) in 1975 to 26.4 GGJ in 2000, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent. The percentage of household fuel provided by electricity grows from 44 percent in 1975 to 56 percent in 2000. The percentages provided by all other fuels decline over time. Alternative high and low forecasts show a range in annual fuel use growth from 1975 to 2000 of 2.1 to 0.3 percent. In the high case, per household fuel use grows at 0.4 percent/year, whereas in the low case, per household fuel use declines 1.1 percent/year.« less