A model of residential energy use

Abstract

A model of residential energy use was developed to simulate the period from 1970 to 2000. The model predicts annual energy use by fuel, end use, and type of housing, and also estimates annual equipment installations and ownership, equipment energy re quirements, structural heat retention, fuel expendi tures, equipment costs, and costs for improving heat retention in new and existing housing units. Thus the model provides considerable detail on residential energy uses and associated costs. These details are useful for evaluating the effects of alternative energy conservation policies, programs, and tech nologies during the next quarter century. The present version of the model handles four fuels, eight end uses, and three types of housing. Each of these 96 components of total energy use is calculated each year as a function of stocks of occupied housing units and new construction, equipment ownership by fuel and end use, heat retention of housing units, average unit energy requirements for each type of equipment, and usage factors that depend on household behavior. Simulation of energy use from 1960 to 1975 shows that the model accurately predicts historical data on aggregate energy use, energy use by fuel, energy use by end use, and market shares of ownership of equipment.