Implications of carbon neutrality for power sector investments and stranded coal assets in China

Abstract

China's 2060 carbon neutrality vision requires deep decarbonization of the power sector. Existing studies explore decarbonization pathways for China's power sector, but understanding of the associated economic costs still needs to be enhanced, especially in the context of carbon neutrality. We examine the implications of carbon neutrality for China's power sector investments and stranded coal assets under 12 illustrative scenarios by combining integrated assessment model simulations and post-simulation calculations, bottom-up coal capacity data. We inform a technology-level scenario-robust investment strategy for China's power sector in line with its carbon neutrality vision. We estimate that total investments in China's power sector reach $7.3–8.4 trillion between 2021 and 2060, of which 76–82% is expected to be invested in wind and solar. We also estimate that achieving carbon neutrality in our scenarios implies $60–130 billion of coal power assets in China at risk of being stranded after 2030. We emphasize that China's policy package to align power sector decarbonization with the carbon neutrality vision should include investment strategies and promotion measures for low-carbon technologies, particularly wind and solar, as well as a roadmap to completely phase out conventional coal plants by approximately 2050.