Feasibility analysis of achieving net-zero emissions in China's power sector before 2050 based on ideal available pathways

Abstract

The decarbonization of the power sector is crucial for achieving the dual‑carbon target in China. Several low-carbon transition pathways have already been proposed. This study develops the CAS-power bottom-up model and a scenario matrix to examine the feasibility of achieving a net-zero emissions power sector before 2050 in China's power sector. Then explore available strategies mix and the corresponding cost changes in different carbon neutrality years. Additionally, the method in this study can be applied to calculate carbon neutrality year and related transition costs. The results show that, first, China's power sector can successfully achieve carbon neutrality before 2050 and 2045 at the earliest. Second, net-zero emissions need to utilize a flexible combination of various mitigation strategies. Among mitigation strategies, renewable energy is indispensable and vital in contributing to a net-zero emission power system. Enhancing the implementation of clean nuclear energy is better than CCS to advance net-zero emissions time when renewable energy strategy is utilized on a large-scale basis, especially in deeply decarbonization situations. Third, the earlier net-zero emissions are achieved, the higher the total cost will be. Last, under the same neutrality year, the total cost will be the highest if carbon capture and storage (CCS) is massively utilized, and renewable energy and storage-related costs account for the majority during the low-carbon transition process. This study suggests that a flexible and rational mix of policies is essential to achieve decarbonization in the power sector and policymakers should constantly adjust incentive options to adapt to changes in mitigation strategies at different stages.