Study on the decarbonization in China's power sector under the background of carbon neutrality by 2060

Abstract

The power sector in China, which is the main CO2 emission contributor in the country, plays an essential role in achieving the 2060 carbon neutrality goal. Notably, there are scientific gaps regarding the decarbonization plan to achieve this goal and the future power supply structure. The objective of this study is to systematically explore and evaluate the feasibility of constructing a carbon-neutral power sector. Considering the power source potential, power supply characteristics, and advanced technologies, methodological steps were developed for the design and assessment of China's power sector. In particular, an evaluation indicator system was included to assess the decarbonization of the power sector and make it comparable in the international context. The results indicated that it is possible for the country's power sector to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, using available domestic energy resources. The total cost of the 100% non-fossil power sector was the lowest, accounting for 87.3% of that of the business-as-usual (BAU) power sector. Compared with the BAU power sector, the renewable power sectors had abatement costs of −0.12–0.43 kCNY/t. The negative abatement cost indicated that power sector decarbonization could be cost-effective in China. In the international context, the cost of electricity of the future China power sector (∼0.42 CNY/kWh) was comparable to that in other regions, while the CO2 abatement cost was lower than that in most regions. The proposed methodological steps can be beneficial for CO2 emissions reduction and energy structure conversion in the power sector of any region.