Transition of China's power sector consistent with Paris Agreement into 2050: Pathways and challenges

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With a high-carbon fuel mix and enormous space for efficiency potential, the power sector is critical to cope with global emission mitigation targets. The climate targets of less than 2 °C and even ambitious 1.5 °C confront China's power sector due to the rising momentum of power demand and the power mix dominated by coal power. Considering the potential carbon-emissions space of the power sector in China, this paper sets the alternative high-share renewable power, 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios that necessitate the zero-emissions and even negative-emissions for the power sector by 2050, and then proposes the pathways and outlines challenges to demonstrate the arduousness and uncertainty of the mega-project of power transition. The results indicate that a package of options is needed for the transition while unconventional bio-energy is the key to a 1.5 °C scenario. Notably, the coal power represents the largest barrier to low-carbon transition owing to the rising installation and massive stranded assets during the long-term reconfiguration of the power sector.