Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Resources in Mexico: Regional Projections and Vulnerabilities

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Anthropogenic climate change can affect forest ecosystems and is one of the causes of deforestation, which leads to desertification. Deforestation is one of the main drivers of climate change due to the release of large amounts of CO2 stored in forests and jungles. Rising temperatures, decreased rainfall and drought have negative impacts on the diversity of forest species, as well as on forest ecosystem goods and services. Thus, this research focuses on climate change and its impact on Mexico's forests, evaluating deforestation and its effects on climate change and, subsequently, the effects of that climate change on forests; and the role of forests in carbon sequestration. Aims: The objective of this study is to present a set of regional temperature, precipitation, and drought projections for Mexico under the IPCC's AR6 climate change scenarios, and to estimate the potential impacts on Mexico's forest resources. Methodology: The methodology consists of obtaining a set of regional projections of temperature, precipitation, vegetation, drought and soil moisture under the conditions of the IPCC AR6 climate change scenarios for Mexico, with the changes of the aforementioned variables the vulnerability of the forestry sector in Mexico will be evaluated through models of the influence of these factors. Results: Regional models for Mexico show temperature increases ranging from 0.5 to 5 °C, while the percentage change in precipitation will range from -20.3% to 13.5% depending on the scenario and period of analysis. The low soil moisture (mm), the negative changes of the NDVI and the SPEI12 show that the North, West and Bajío zones will present reductions in precipitation and temperature increase that will cause a severe deficit of soil moisture and water stress in the plants, considering these areas with scarce vegetation and the presence of semi-permanent meteorological drought. Under these scenarios, it is expected that practically the entire country will be subject to moderate droughts (Central and South) to extremely severe droughts (North) that will last and worsen between now and the end of the century. These conditions have already been recorded in Mexico's main forest areas and if adaptation and mitigation measures are not adopted, the country's forest resources are at risk. Likewise, in addition to the decrease in rainfall, it is estimated that it will be more intense with the presence of extreme events, which will increase the vulnerability of some basins throughout the country, in the Central and Northern areas with extreme drought events, while in the Southeast with floods. Conclusion: Temperate and cloud forests, xerophilous scrub and grasslands will be the most affected forest ecosystems in Mexico, to reduce the effects of climate change on forest resources, it is necessary to design and prioritize adaptation actions and implement mitigation measures that prevent the effects of climate change from intensifying in the most vulnerable regions of the country.