The Agricultural Sector and Climate Change in Mexico

Abstract

Introduction: The agricultural sector is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns would reduce crop production and lead to the proliferation of weeds, diseases and pests on crops. Changes in rainfall patterns increase the likelihood of short-term crop failure and long-term production reduction. Although some crops in certain regions of the world may benefit, the impacts of climate change are generally expected to be negative for agriculture. Likewise, the low availability of feed for livestock uses and the decrease in the availability of water will affect the productivity of milk and meat of the different breeds of cattle. Both low agricultural and livestock productivity threaten global food security.
 Objective: This research aims to highlight the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in Mexico. The present analysis uses regional modeling of climate variables under climate change conditions that impact crop growth and livestock development, using two scenarios to simulate future climate.
 Materials and Methods: the methodology is to present a set of regional projections of humidity, temperature, rainfall and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indices (SPEI) for Mexico under the IPCC AR6 climate change scenarios, improving the projections of the Ocean-Atmospheric General Circulation Models and estimating the possible impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector of Mexico.
 Results and Discussion: Regional models for Mexico show temperature increases ranging from 0.5 to 5 °C, while the % change in rainfall will range from -20.3% to 13.5% depending on the scenario and analysis period. The low soil moisture (mm), the negative changes of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and SPEI 12 show that the North, West and Bajío areas presented reductions in precipitation and increase in temperature that caused a severe deficit of soil moisture and water stress in the plants, considering these areas with scarce vegetation and presence of semi-permanent meteorological drought. Under these scenarios it is expected that practically the entire country will be subjected to moderate droughts (Center and South) to extremely strong (North) that will continue and sharpen between now and the end of the century. In Mexico, climate change will have various effects on crop yields, livestock reproduction and production of meat and its derivatives in all regions of the country in a differentiated way according to soil and climatic conditions. This will lead to additional price increases for major crops for both human and animal consumption. It will also cause not enough land suitable for cultivation and grazing; and availability of surface and groundwater demanded by the agricultural sector by the end of the 21st century.
 Conclusions: Finally, climate change will put Mexico's food security at risk during the present century.