Impact of technological innovation on carbon emissions in China's logistics industry: Based on the rebound effect

Abstract

Technological innovation is an important way to reduce carbon emissions in the logistics industry. Using panel data of the logistics industry in China's 30 provinces from 2002 to 2019, a dynamic spatial Durbin model was constructed to explore the impact of logistics technological innovation on carbon emissions, and determine whether there is a rebound effect. Furthermore, the rebound effect of logistics technological innovation was calculated, and its spatial-temporal characteristics were analyzed. It was found that there is a “U”-shaped relationship between logistics technological innovation and carbon emissions at the national and regional levels, which means that the impact of logistics technological innovation on carbon emissions has a rebound effect. Moreover, the spatial spillover of technological innovation strengthens the rebound effect, while the optimization of the energy structure weakens it. Further calculation showed that the average spatial rebound effect is 60.61%, which is 22.66% higher than the average direct rebound effect. The spatial rebound effect has obvious regional heterogeneity, with the highest in the central region, followed by the eastern region, and the lowest in the western region. For temporal variation, at the national level, the spatial rebound effect was successively shown as a backfire effect, partial rebound effect, super energy-saving effect, and partial rebound effect. Similarly, three regions fluctuate circularly in these rebound effects with different forms. Thus, the rebound effect can be alleviated through energy structure optimization, energy price marketization, and a regional collaborative development mechanism.