Impact of Substitution Rate on Energy Consumption Structure: A Dynamical System Approach

Abstract

Energy structure in global terminal consumption is moving towards a direction of low carbon. This study analyzes the evolution of the share of coal in energy consumption structure by continuous dynamical systems. Based on the complex and dynamic interactions among energy sources, an n-dimensional dynamical system model is constructed where the alternative of other energy sources for coal are modeled by the linear parameters. A case study of China is performed on its terminal energy consumption structure. Three scenarios are set to analyze and compare the particular evolution paths of coal share: the substitution rate changes, the self-growth rate changes, and both the substitution rate and self-growth rate change. Results show that the improvement of renewable power in either the substitution rate or self-growth rate is the most effective to reduce the proportion of coal. As to other energy sources, raising the coal substitution rate is better than increasing their self-growth rate. It concludes that proper control of coal power, moderate development of hydropower, and active and safe development of nuclear power are likely increase the proportion of electric in terminal energy consumption. This study provides an alternative and promising approach to analyze the evolution of coal ratio in energy consumption structure and may have potential application in other areas and countries.