An interpretable prediction of FCM driven by small samples for energy analysis based on air quality prediction

Abstract

ABSTRACT In order to achieve prevention and control of air pollution through energy consumption adjustment in advance, the paper proposes an Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) of various energy resources affecting air quality, an incremental prediction algorithm of FCM and gradient descending method used to learn the FCM based on the small sample data on various energy consumptions and concentration of air pollutants. The FCM as an interpretable prediction method not only can predict future air quality more accurately, but also can analyze and interpret the affecting of various energy types on the future air quality. As the time delay of various energy consumptions affecting concentration of air pollutants, the quantitative time sequence influencing relationships (causality) in the FCM is mined directly from these data, and the air quality affected by various types of energy consumptions is predicted based on the FCM. Accordingly, the energy types affecting air pollution can be obtained for prior decision of energy consumption structure adjustment. The experimental results in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei show that the FCM modeling is better than Support Vector Regression (SVR), Linear Regression (LR), Principal Component Analysis (PCA)-based forecasting, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) methods in predicting air quality affected by energy resources, meanwhile according to the interpretable prediction results of the FCM, we obtain some interesting results and suggestions on energy consumption types in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions in advance. Implications: At present, China’s air pollution control has entered the deep-water area, and the biggest challenge is how to adjust the energy (consumption) structure. Therefore, this study completed the two important tasks: (1) driven by small sample data of energy consumptions, the paper provides an interpretable prediction model and method with better performance to achieve prevention and control of air pollution through energy consumption adjustment in advance; (2) according to the interpretable prediction results, the paper obtains some interesting results used to guide energy consumption adjustment in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions. This study will provide beneficial suggestions and strategies for air pollution prevention and control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, will help improve the air quality and energy consumption structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and also can be extended to other regions.