Impact of China's economic growth and energy consumption structure on atmospheric pollutants: Based on a panel threshold model

Abstract

Energy consumption, especially fossil energy consumption, is the main source of the emission of atmospheric pollutants. A comprehensive understanding of the regional characteristics and evolution trends of the atmospheric pollutant emissions caused by energy consumption in China, and on a global scale, can facilitate a better understanding of the sources of atmospheric pollutants and the evolution of environmental issues. The scientific energy policies and measures taken to prevent air pollution have important theoretical and practical significance. In order to prevent air pollution and achieve sustainable economic development while economic growth is progressing, this study analyzes the factors that impact atmospheric pollutants. These factors are the energy consumption structure, energy intensity, economic growth, population, industrial structure, and FDI (Foreign Direct Investment). The study uses panel data from 2000 to 2016 for all Chinese provinces. Based on the analysis of the mechanism between the energy consumption structure and air quality, the dynamic panel data model and panel threshold model are proposed to study the effect of the above factors on atmospheric pollutants. The empirical results indicate that the first lag period of the atmospheric pollutants has a positive effect on the current air quality; that is, there is “inertia”. China's coal-based energy consumption structure has promoted air pollution across the nation overall and in the eastern, central, and western regions. The results of the panel threshold for economic growth indicate that the differences among the regions are significant. The country has three thresholds, and each region has a double threshold. The results of this study will benefit policymakers who are striving to improve the air quality by its consideration of the actual influencing factors, and it will help the policymakers to make the inverted U-shaped curve or inverted N-shaped curve more significant and lasting. It is then necessary to optimize the energy structure to avoid unrealistic and blind behavior.