Material footprint and import dependency in EU27: Past trends and future challenges

Abstract

This study examines the material footprint and import dependency of the European Union (EU27) members, focusing on four key material categories: biomass, fossil fuels, metal ores, and non-metals. The feasibility and efficacy of EU strategies concerning the transition to a circular economy and the reduction of raw material extractions is assessed, with a particular focus on the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRM Act).Using Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) between 2012 and 2020, we identify the impacts of macroeconomic drivers such as technological progress, structural changes, and final consumption patterns on material use. Our analysis indicates a gradual shift towards the relative decoupling of GDP from material use in the EU27, particularly for non-metals and fossil fuels. Additionally, the region shows a decreasing dependency on non-EU countries, as evidenced by the reduction in net trade over recent years.However, the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario projects material usage and import reliance up to 2030, assessing the EU27's ability to meet the CRM targets. The results reveal significant import dependencies from the rest of the world, particularly for fossil fuels (90.9%) and metal ores (86.2%), where nearly all EU27 countries exceed the 65% import dependency threshold. While biomass and non-metals show more promise in terms of self-sufficiency, challenges remain. Additionally, the potential for substitutability across raw materials is explored, highlighting the complexities of transitioning to alternative resources such as biomass.Our findings emphasize the necessity for integrated policy interventions at the EU level, combining supply and demand measures, technological advancements, and behavioral changes to achieve relative dematerialization. The study also stresses the importance of international cooperation to secure sustainable raw material supplies. Without a multifaceted approach, the EU27 risks failing to meet future environmental and sustainability goals, particularly in light of recent geopolitical developments and the urgent need to transition to renewable energy sources.