Herd immunity levels and multi-strain influenza epidemics in Russia: a modelling study

Abstract

AbstractIn the present paper, we consider a compartmental epidemic model which simulates the co-circulation of three influenza strains, A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and B, in a population with the history of exposure to these virus strains. A strain-specific incidence data for the model input was generated using long-term weekly ARI incidence and virologic testing data. The algorithm for model calibration was developed as a combination of simulated annealing and BFGS optimization methods. Two simulations were carried out, assuming the absence and the presence of protected individuals in the population, with 2017– 2018 and 2018–2019 epidemic seasons in Moscow as a case study. It was shown that strain-specific immune levels defined by virologic studies might be used in the model to obtain plausible incidence curves. However, different output parameter values, such as fractions of individuals exposed to particular virus strain in the previous epidemic season, can correspond to similar incidence trajectories, which complicates the assessment of herd immunity levels based on the model calibration. The results of the study will be used in the research of the interplay between the immunity formation dynamics and the circulation of influenza strains in Russian cities.