Greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth in Morocco: A decoupling analysis

Abstract

This study aims to provide insights into the decoupling of GDP growth and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Morocco, a developing country with the ambitious goals of reducing GHG and strongly vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change. The Engle-Granger cointegration method was used in addition to the Tapio elastic analysis based on annual time series data from 1990 to 2018. The cointegration test indicates a significant long-term relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and Gross Domestic Product with a coefficient equal to 0.85. On the other hand, Tapio's decoupling index method presents mixed results both by pollutant and by time period. Nevertheless, total greenhouse gas emissions, with a decoupling index valued at 0.7, exhibit a weak impact decoupling throughout the entire sample period wherein emissions continue to grow at a lower rate than the Gross Domestic Product. The findings are coherent with the view that more aggressive carbon pricing initiatives (CPI) policies will likely be necessary to achieve the ambitious goals set by the Moroccan government to achieve absolute decoupling.