Urban and rural contribution to the GHG emissions in the MECA countries

Abstract

In this study, a comparative analysis was presented to detect the quota of urban and rural areas from total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 26 selected countries of the Middle East and Central Asia (MECA) during 1994–2014. For this purpose, 18 independent variables such as land area, population characteristics, energy use and consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), CO2 emissions, etc., were considered in addition to one dependent variable of total GHG emissions. Statistical modeling to investigate GHG emissions was constructed comprising the quantitative procedures of the correlation test and clustering analysis, which can be considered as the fundamental basis of each econometric analysis. The GHG emissions from the urban (rural) sector of total countries in 2014 were obtained as 3313.4 (1135.6) Mt of CO2 equivalents, which is about 74.5% (25.5%) of the total GHG emissions (4449.1 Mt of CO2 equivalents) in the MECA region. The correlation test between GHG emissions and urban indicators revealed the significant records (R from 0.745 to 0.981) compared with rural indicators (R from 0.337 to 0.890). Based on the clustering analysis of the countries, Cluster A, comprised of three countries of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, was categorized as countries with very high contributing to the total GHG emissions in the MECA region (~ 43.3%). The quotas of emissions from urban and rural sectors in the Cluster A were estimated as 83.1% and 16.9% from the total GHG emissions in 2014 (1921.3 Mt of CO2), while the same quotas were predicted as 73.1% and 26.9% from the total GHG emissions in 2030 (1921.3 Mt of CO2). This study carried out comprehensive research on the GHG emissions from the urban and rural areas in a crucial region of the world, which is faced with the rising growth of population, urbanization, globalization, high-energy use, and fuel consumption.