Greenhouse gas contribution and emission reduction potential prediction of China's aluminum industry

Abstract

The aluminum industry, with its traditionally high energy consumption, high emissions and high pollution, is facing increasing pressure to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China. This study analyzes the trajectory and characteristics of GHG emissions during the lifecycle of China's aluminum industry (CAI) from 2011 to 2020, and identifies key driving factors affecting the changes in GHG emissions from CAI. The results indicate that the GHG emissions of CAI mainly come from indirect emissions generated by electricity production (over 69 %). Electrolytic aluminum is the largest sub process of GHG emissions in CAI. In addition, the total energy consumption effect is the main driving factor for the increase in GHG emissions from CAI. On this basis, emission reduction measures are proposed, the economic benefits and applicability of various emission reduction measures are analyzed, and the grey prediction model GM (1,1) is used to predict the GHG emission reduction potential of CAI in 2030. According to analysis, the GHG emission reduction efficiency of CAI is expected to reach 86 % by 2030, and can produce an annual economic benefit of 2.93 × 109RMB. This study will provide a theoretical basis for GHG emission reduction in CAI and even the global aluminum industry (GAI).