Abstract
OZET : Bu calismanin amaci, Gumruk Birligi’nin Turkiye-AB tarim urunleri dis ticareti uzerine olasi etkilerini analiz etmektir. Bu amacla, 1982-2011 yillari arasi zaman serisi verileri kullanilarak regresyon analizi yapilmistir. Arastirma bulgularina gore, 1982 yilina gore AB’ye yapilan tarim urunleri ihracati 8,8 kat, AB’den yapilan tarim urunleri ithalati ise 36,6 kat artmistir. Gumruk Birligi’nin Turkiye ile AB arasindaki tarim urunleri dis ticaretine olumsuz yonde etkiledigi tespit edilmistir. Gumruk Birligi, AB’ye yapilan tarim urunleri ihracatinda yapisal bir degisime neden olurken, tarim urunleri ithalatinda yapisal bir degisime neden olmamistir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Gumruk Birligi, Tarimsal Ticaret, Avrupa Birligi, Turkiye. The Effect of Customs Union on the Foreign Trade of Agricultural Products between Turkey and European Union ABSTRACT : The objective of this study is to make an analysis on the possible effects of Customs Union on the trade of agricultural products between Turkey and European Union. For this purpose, regression analysis was conducted using time series data between 1982 and 2011. According to the study, export of agricultural products from Turkey to European Union increase 8.8 fold while the import of these products increase 36.6 folds during 1982-2011 period. It has been concluded that the Customs Union had a negative effect for Turkey on the trade of agricultural products between Turkey and European Union. The export of agricultural products has caused a structural change in Agriculture in Turkey while the import of these products had no effect on the structure of agriculture in the Country. Key words: Customs Union, Agricultural Trade, European Union, Turkey
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