FORESIGHT IN THE SYSTEM OF STRATEGIC PUBLIC SECURITY MANAGEMENT OF THE COUNTRY

Abstract

The article analyzes the innovative form of foresight forecasting. The author substantiates that foresight in the system of strategic management of public security of the country is a process of creative assessment, which applies the available knowledge and forecast analysis to the potential future development of the public security system. In the article of implementation of such process can occur and be implemented within the body of state power or external organization of the management system. The author notes that foresight is the most effective technology that can detect emerging trends in the early stages and predict possible scenarios for future problems. This technology gives the state the opportunity to "play ahead", thereby acting proactively, rather than eliminating the effects of new crises. The author determined that foresight in the public safety system is carried out in three stages: At the first stage, promising trends in scientific and technological development in the field of public safety, which are classified by clusters. They cover various areas (personnel, logistical, financial, innovative, organizational and other public security) and are interdisciplinary. In the second stage, trends are analyzed to form "pictures of the future" based on them, and current topics for building scenarios and concepts of development are identified. At the third stage, on the basis of "pictures of the future" guidelines are prepared for public policy in the field of public safety in four promising areas, scenarios of their possible development are determined. "Landmarks of the future" represent the key problems of the nation and ways to solve them in the form of clearly identified research projects, which involve the most important technological or social innovations.