FORECASTS OF LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS OF MONGUN-TAIGA MASSIF (SOUTH-EAST TYVA) FOR PREDETERMINED SCENARIOUS OF CLIMATIC CHANGES

Abstract

Sensibility of geosystems to external influence is conside-red in the case of Mongun-Taiga massif. Information about the current state of geosystems of the massif, their ecological climatic niches and spatial distribution of climatic characte-ristics is based on multiyear in situ instrumental observations of the authors. Modeling of landscape structure transformation influenced by climate change in the mountainous area is done through digital models of relief and fields of climatic characteristics. Changes of geosystems of glacio-nival zone are evaluated through the mathematical model, created by authors. Revealed ecoclimatic niches of geasystems (areas of their optimum) are used for the prediction of the borders shift, the most probable continuous geosystem states for specific combination of climatic characteristic values and geosystems vicinity are taken into account. Two scenarios are considered for 2047-2050. The first one is based on extrapolation of current trends of meteo data of Mugur Aksy meteorological station , warming on the background of threduction of precipitation is expected. In the second forecast scenario based on RCP8.5 model warming and moistering are expected. Forecasts of transformation of landscape structure of the massif obtained give the opportunity to conclude that high mountain geosystems, mostly snow-ice formations, and also periglacial zone landscapes are the most changeable. Most area changes by the middle of the XXI century are predicted for the scenario of warming on the background of aridization.