Abstract
We propose a new method of estimating the shrinkage of glaciers over a wide area under conditions of changed climate. The method can be also used to quantitatively estimate the presence of glaciers under past climatic conditions, in mountainous areas where they are currently absent. The method is based on the use of statistical parameters of the distribution of glaciers by altitude zones, according to vertical distance from the climatic equilibrium line altitude (CELA). The method was used for the Pskem River basin (tributary of the Chirchik River, Western Tien-Shan) where glaciation has been extensively studied. Data are available for several glacier inventories for the basin for different time periods from 1957 to 2010. The number of glaciers for the part of the basin considered in the studies decreased by 16 percent during that period. Mean summer air temperature and annual precipitation were used as climate indicators characterizing ablation and accumulation on glaciers. Data of several meteorological stations located in the Pskem River basin were used to document these climatic characteristics. We estimated shrinkage of glaciers over the area for increases of summer air temperature of 0.5 - 2°C.
Highlights
Estimation of the change in characteristics of mountain glaciation under climate change is an important scientific and practical problem that has been solved for different mountainous regions around the world
We propose a method for estimating the change in the parameters of dispersed glaciation under conditions of climate change
It should be noted that the method can be used even when no direct data are available on the relationship between the climate and the area of glaciation of a certain region, i.e., when only meteorological data from the nearest meteorological stations and a single glacier inventory are available
Summary
Estimation of the change in characteristics of mountain glaciation under climate change is an important scientific and practical problem that has been solved for different mountainous regions around the world. Dispersed type of glaciation was identified by Khodakov (1978) and used to name a set of small glaciers that do not form a single massif but rather form a distributed or scattered array of glaciers, with possible concentrations or groups in sub-areas of the territory. Such glaciation is widespread in the peripheries of mountainous regions and is the only type of glaciation in some regions (for example, the Northern Ural, Kuznetsk Alatau). A method similar to the one we propose in the present paper has been used to assess the potential presence and GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY
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