Assessment of climate change pattern in the Pauri Garhwal of the Western Himalayan Region: based on climate parameters and perceptions of forest-dependent communities.

Abstract

This study assessed the climate change in Pauri district, Uttarakhand, India, a region highly vulnerable to climate change with potentially high loss of livelihoods and lives. The scale of change in the district's climate was analyzed using meteorological station data (1901-2000) and grid data (1985-2015). Perceptions of climate change among forest-dependent communities in three altitude zones (< 1200 m asl (zone A); 1200-1800 m asl (zone B), and > 1800 m asl (zone C)) in the study region were surveyed with respect to 14 climate-specific indicators. Annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperature of seasonal data indicated increasing trends except monsoon. Percentage cloud cover showed an increase, of approximately 3%, while diurnal temperature displayed decreasing trends. Rainfall in the district showed a decreasing trend, with more than 50% of years 1985-2015 receiving less rainfall than the annual average. More than 90% of respondents in zones A and B, and around 65-70% respondents in zone C, reported changes in climate parameters. These findings confirm the long-term observable changes in climate in the region and demonstrate the utility of station data, grid data, and surveys of local communities' perceptions when analyzing climate change. The analysis provided important clues about the nature of climate changes in the district. The results can be used to reduce the gap between bottom-up understanding and top-down policies and to formulate precautionary and ongoing site-specific adaptation practices for communities in different altitude zones in the study region, leading to effective and efficient mitigation of climate change impacts.