Experimental Management of Oregon Coho Salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch): Designing for Yield of Information

Abstract

Large-scale experimental manipulation of juvenile salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) abundance can provide a test of the hypothesis of linearity in the smolt-to-adult abundance relation. However, not all manipulations will be equally informative owing to large variability in marine survival. We use Monte Carlo simulation and an analytical approximation to calculate for Oregon coho salmon (O. kisutch) the statistical power of the test involving different controlled smolt abundances and durations of experiments. One recently proposed experimental release of 48 million smolts for each of 3 yr has a relatively low power and, as a consequence, is unlikely to show clearly whether the smolt-to-adult relationship is linear. The number of smolts required for a powerful test of the hypothesis of linearity is closer to the 88 million suggested in another proposal. To prevent confounding of interpretation of results, all other human sources of variability in fish should be minimized by establishing standardized rearing and release procedures during the experiment. In addition, appropriate preexperiment data on coho food, predators, and competitors will increase effectiveness of experiments by providing information on mechanisms of change in marine survival.