Presence-only fisheries bycatch data produce biased species distribution predictions for Alcyonacean corals on British Columbia’s continental shelf and slope

Abstract

Sedentary benthic species such as Alcyonacea corals form critical habitat for fishes and invertebrates. Assessing anthropogenic risks to these organisms requires unbiased, species distribution models (SDMs) that attempt to map probabilities of coral presence in relation to bio-physical ocean characteristics; however, in deep-water settings, the accuracy of SDMs is highly variable and dependent on spatial and taxonomic resolution. Here we investigated how data and model types affect SDM predictions of Alcyonacea probability of presence. We compared predictions from generalized additive models (GAMs) fitted to presence-absence observations over a stratified-random survey design with predictions from maximum entropy models (Maxent) fitted to presence-only bycatch records from commercial fisheries. We use a simulation analysis to show that both model types (i.e., GAM or Maxent) using presence-only bycatch data produced biased estimates of species distribution. Additionally, the maxent model fit using presence-only bycatch data produced biased estimates of performance metrics (AUC, TSS) that were overly optimistic. This study demonstrates a need for presence-absence data collected using a robust survey sampling design to fit SDMs that will better inform marine protected area placement while minimizing unnecessary economic losses, such as forgone fishing yield, due to sub-optimal placement.