Early Marine Survival of Coho Salmon in the Strait of Georgia Declines to Very Low Levels

Abstract

AbstractThe marine survival of juvenile coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch from the time they enter the Strait of Georgia in mid‐May to the time of our trawl survey in mid‐September declined from an average of about 15% in 1998 to approximately 1% in 2007. Early marine survival rates for juvenile coho salmon have been consistently low (<5%) since 2002, and the rate of decline in early marine survival was greater for hatchery fish than for wild fish. This suggests that hatchery coho salmon are perhaps less able to survive than wild fish in the current marine ecosystem. The steady decline in total marine survival for coho salmon over the past four decades coincided with a warming of the Strait of Georgia, where both sea surface and sea bottom temperatures have increased by approximately 1°C since 1970. Another factor that appears to have contributed to the decline in early marine survival since the late 1990s is an increase in the number of days with an average sustained wind strength greater than 25 km/h. The linkage between wind strength and marine survival requires further study, but wind strength is known to affect the timing and level of primary productivity. The processes that caused the declining marine survival remain to be identified and may include factors associated with disease originating in both freshwater and salt water, metabolic stress, competition, and predation. The data suggest that coho salmon brood year strength is now mostly determined during the first 4 months spent in the Strait of Georgia. If the current low levels of marine survival continue, management initiatives to protect wild coho salmon will be urgently required, and it will be timely to critically evaluate the hatchery programs and policies.