Evaluating the modal split of overland transportation of general cargo in Brazil using a market share model

Brunno Santos Gonçalves,Francisco Gildemir Ferreira Da Silva,Márcio De Almeida D'Agosto,Ilton Curty Leal Jr

doi:10.1590/2238-1031.jtl.v8n4a3

Brunno Santos Gonçalves, Francisco Gildemir Ferreira Da Silva + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.1590/2238-1031.jtl.v8n4a3

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Abstract

This paper presents a methodology developed to evaluate the modal split of land transport of general cargo in Brazil and possible reasons for the prevalence of road transport over rail, using a market share model. No studies were found using the market share model for planning cargo transport, in spite of its generic nature which makes it readily applicable to any market, service, utility or commodity. The methodology was applied in three transport corridors, two groups of general cargo and enabled us to establish that Brazilian rail operations are still uncompetitive in terms of logistics costs when transporting general cargo of high aggregate value. Moreover, transport supply is a determinant factor for the greater use of road transport in Brazil's general cargo transport matrix, and the demand for general cargo transport in Brazil is elastic in relation to this factor. For low aggregate value general cargo (AV1), a 1% reduction in the gap between road and railway supply leads to an increase in the railway market share of 4.5% through TC1 (São Paulo -Porto Alegre -São Paulo), 4.9% through TC2 (Santos -Brasilia -Santos), and 3.3% through TC3(São Paulo -Rio de Janeiro -São Paulo). For high aggregate value general cargo (AV2), this elasticity was more pronounced. A 1% reduction in the gap between road and railway transport supply leads to an increase in the railway market share of 4.2% through TC1, 11.9% through TC2, and 9.6% through TC3.

Highlights

This paper presents a methodology developed to evaluate the modal split of land transport of general cargo in Brazil and possible reasons for the prevalence of road transport over rail, using a market share model
An analysis of the general cargo transported through these corridors by rail showed that the average aggregate value and the level of containerization of these cargos are both low, suggesting that rail logistics costs and rail transport supply are still uncompetitive for goods with higher aggregate value
An analysis of the problem proposed in this paper suggests that logistics costs and transport supply are adequate indicators, only transport supply has shown satisfactory statistical results

Summary

Introduction

This paper presents a methodology developed to evaluate the modal split of land transport of general cargo in Brazil and possible reasons for the prevalence of road transport over rail, using a market share model. Using railways to transport general cargo in Brazil is still not a prevalent practice. Based on ANTT (2004), ANTT (2011) and ANTAQ (2010), the authors have estimated that railways transported a mere 7.9% of all Brazilian general cargo in 2011; approximately 25.5 million tons. The more popular road transport mode accounted for 85.3% of cargo transportation in the same year; approximately 275.9 million tons. Brazilian transport policy guidelines are attempting to establish a more equitable transport matrix with priority being given to the use of more economical and environmentally sustainable transport modes, rail and waterway. The Brazilian government is endeavoring to exploit the comparative advantages of different modes of transport and to integrate and combine their operations to achieve safer and more economical intermodal handling of goods

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